Kerry Carpenter, OF, Detroit Tigers
Carpenter had a great day going 2-5 with 3 R, 1 BB on three hard hit balls. He's running a .434 xwOBACON, which is mainly driven by a 14.5 barrel rate and 21.7 LA. He's pulling balls in the air at an astounding 23.6%. This analysis is simple - Kerry hits the ball hard, hits it in the air, and can do both at the same time. He's playing nearly every day and has some solid hitters behind him in the lineup. He's legit.
Bryce Harper, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
Harper 0-3 with 2 K, BB on one hard hit ball. It's a bit of a down year for the former greatest prospect of all time. His .429 xwOBACON is the second lowest of his career, only behind his .423 level last year. So the trend isn't great. There is some good news, however. Harper is running a career low groundball rate at 34.5% and a career low popup rate at 1.7%. As a result, his 35.3% flyball rate is a career high, and his 28.4% LD rate is third best. His 41.4% LA Sweet Spot is a career high as well. In short, Harper is doing plenty of things excellently, he's just not getting to barrels. Buy low.
William Contreras, C, Milwaukee Brewers
Contreras went 0-4 with 1 K on no hard hit balls. You probably reached for Contreras in drafts thinking you were getting a competitive advantage by having one of the few consistent hitters at the desolate catcher position. It's ok, a lot of people did that. Contreras is running a career low .326 xwOBACON, career low 41.9% hard hit rate, c career low barrel rate, career low EV, and career low LA. Big yikes. Luckily, I think a portion of it is swing decision related. Contreras cut his swing rate by 3% compared to last year, and his whiff rate is down 2% as well. The main issue is that his zone swing is down 4% and his chase contact is up 12%. We'd rather have that flipped. In addition, his bat speed is down 1.9 mph, which, while small, is very significant. While I think Contreras will slowly improve in the swing decision department, I can't do anything about his bat speed.
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona's top prospect will be called up for his second up of tea in the bigs. Lawlar took 34 PAs in the bigs in 2023, and they went horribly. Luckily, Lawlar is now two years older, and he's been raking in AAA. Lawlar is posting a 143 wRC+ with a .433 xwOBA. The 22.5%/10.4% K/BB rate is respectable, but not amazing for this caliber of prospect, and his .421 BABIP means his current results might be a touch inflated. The good news is that he currently has 6 HR and 13 SB, so we should get some productivity in the counting stats department. I like Lawlar and think he is a worthy add if you're struggling at the SS spot.
Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Kelly went 7 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K in a strong night against the Giants. He allowed seven hard hit balls and posted a 29% CSW. I don't buy it. Merrill doesn't strike out many (18.4%), and his 44.4% groundball rate isn't high enough to offset the low punchout rate. He has a .411 xwOBACON against and a 45.9% hard hit rate against. He's gotten tremendously lucky this year (.288 wOBA vs. .356 xwOBA). Sell.
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